The demand for Tesla’s first crossover, the Model Y, has no doubt been strong in North America. In the first half of 2020 over 13,000 were sold, an impressive feat for a vehicle that’s only been in production since March. But how will the Y fair in Europe, where thanks to taxes and import costs it’s around $20,000 more than it is the US?
With a starting price of €58,620 ($69k) in Germany, the Y is no doubt significantly more than the average family crossover. Giga Berlin should lower that price by €1-2k at most according to our sources, whilst the upcoming RWD variant of the Model Y should be another €2k or so less. So by the time it goes on sale in the EU in late 2021 expect a €55k ($64,000) base point for a LR RWD Model Y. As per Elon Musk’s recent tweet, a SR Model Y will not be going ahead so that LR RWD version will definitely be the entry point.
So around €55k? How does that compare with the competition? Well in Germany (our sample European county for this comparison) the Ford Mach E will start at €46,900 ($55,271) whilst the Volkswagen ID.4 is expected to be just under €40,000 ($47,000) after incentives. The Audi Q4 e-tron and it’s Sportback variant should be between €45-50k too. Meanwhile both the Škoda Enyaq and Nissan Ariya should start at around the €40k mark when they arrive at the same time as the Y – the later half of 2021. This is all definitely making the Y look expensive, the fear for Tesla Europe is clearly that they might be significantly undercut by the competition.
Whilst the Model 3 is still somewhat attainable for the average EU consumer with a €42,900 ($50,500) base point, once you go beyond €50k you really are entering the more premium end of the market. We think the Model Y will do well – but perhaps not as well as some are led to believe. In the EU it’s likely it will be outsold by the ID.4, and maybe the Mach-E too. That said, still expect over 30,000 to be sold in the EU per year, and for it to become a common sight on European roads in the years to come. It should also perform better than the likes of the €60k Volvo XC40 Recharge and BMW iX3. Would you pay a premium for a Model Y over the likes of the ID.4, Mach-E and Ariya? Let us know your thoughts in the replies section below.